A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
