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Just two days before the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes added later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible in which election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. But overall, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.