🔗 Share this article

At first, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a resolute approach regarding Ukraine. Following delivering warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted blocking truce negotiations, the former president ultimately enacted major restrictions on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly affected Putin's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

Yet, via his latest 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European input, he has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's initiative would effectively reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in peril. Although bold statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the initiative effectively compromise that very independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business background, the former president seems to view the war as a mere land disagreement, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. However, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer functions as an enticing model for the Russian people of the responsible government that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in position the presently separated regions of these areas, the proposal would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a lengthy period of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukraine's military defenses severely compromised.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that represent a critical impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, leaving Putin a open route to the capital should he subsequently decide to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would enable renewed fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, the plan imposes no similar limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be opposed and forbidden." As if to underscore this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. However, Trump places no condition that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative includes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has violated comparable accords in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a return of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should the international community trust this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on western defense commitments. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive joint military response" should Russia resume its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics vary from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the reassurance force, likely led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Putin from rebuilding his weakened forces, restocking, and reinvading.

World Concern

Another parallel deal apparently would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. Yet in contrast to a capable national defense – Ukraine's best defense against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, like the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not